$ES: Bears Failed to Start
A Big Decline:
What’s Next?

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To keep alive the bearish setup under the completed Expanding Triangle scenario bears had to keep ES at all times under 3,786 (a support turned resistance). They failed to defend that level and bulls managed to make a higher high.

That move up invalidated the Expanding Triangle scenario that argued for immediate breakdown to new lower lows.

That makes me consider an alternative scenario, where the rally that topped yesterday was the first leg up off the low in wave a up:

ES-mini, 120 min chart

The strong bullish bounce we got on Wednesday could be subwave -b- up of the blue wave b down.

Before the second leg up in wave c up may start, we need to complete a corrective whipsaw, a micro a-b-c down structure of the blue wave b down.

To get completed, that blue wave b down needs one more drop to the low made this morning (it can stop a bit higher than the morning low made on Wednesday).

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