$ES: Finishing a 2-year Long Bull Run

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$ES #ES-mini #Elliott Wave #trading setup

ES is about to finish a large 2-year long bull run, a five wave up structure off the low made in Oct 2022:

ES-mini Daily chart

According to that topping wave count ES-mini is in the last segment of the rally, a subwave (c) of wave (v) up. When a five wave up rally gets completed we normally expect a large three wave move down with the following targets:

  • target 1 for the pullback at the low made by the subwave (b) down of wave (v) up = 5,455.
  • the target 2 / strong support – at the low made by the previous minor corrective wave (iv) down = 5,181.25; and
  • the potential target 3 for an extended move down/ super strong support – retest of the low made by the subwave (b) down of wave (iii) up = 4,364.50

ES-mini Daly chart

The main idea behind the wave theory is the fractal nature of wave moves. Imagine a large upward price move that happens in five steps (we call these “waves”). Each of these steps can also be broken down into smaller waves (we call them “subwaves”) that look just like the larger ones. So, when we focus on just one part of this bigger move (like the third step of the fifth wave), it also has five smaller waves inside it. In other words, price movements are like fractals, where each part of the bigger picture looks like the whole picture on a smaller scale.

Lets’ focus on that final segment, the subwave (c) of wave (v) up, the rally off the low made in Sep 2024:

ES-mini 13,500 tick bar chart

As you can see, the ideal scenario of completion of the whole rally off teh Oct 2022 low is that bulls push ES-mini to another higher high and tag the Red Box.

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