$ES: The March 2023 Fractal Prescribes A Move Up

#ES $ES #Elliott Wave #seasonality #fractals

The March 2023 bottom looks very similar to that consolidation:

ES-mini 240 min, March 2023

This is how ES looks on 240 min chart now:

ES-mini 240 min chart, March 2025

To confirm a bullish reversal we need bulls to push ES-mini over resistance 5,642:

ES-mini 10 min chart

What is our PLAN B? What if bears break under the immediate support 5,563?

ES-mini 240 min chart

So far bears did not tag the Macro Target 2 = 5,525. That level is a macro milestone, both a support and a magnet. Bearish seasonality still allows bears to make a lower low at the end of the third trading week of March:

SPY March Seasonality over the last 10 years

If bears manage to violate the support 5,563 we will most likely get a spike undershooting the 5,525 level. Price may undershoot that level but then I would expect an immediate bullish reversal.

THE MIDDAY UPDATE.

Bears managed to trigger the bearish PLAN B by breaking down under the immediate support 5,563.

ES-mini 240 min chart

I can identify two targets for that move down to a lower low (undercutting the milestone support 5,525):

target 1 = 5,502 and

target 2 = 5,482.50.

The ideal scenario is a drop under 5,525 support followed by a strong recovery triggering the long “failed breakdown” setup.

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